No Ifs, Ands, or Buts

What now?

To start with the reality, the American electorate has chosen Donald J. Trump knowing who he is. There is no need to list those characteristics.

The country will have to accept that for at least the next two years, until the midterm balloting, Trump will be at a peak of his power, more really than any of his predecessors.

He has received immunity from the Supreme Court, he has been acquitted in two impeachment trials, he has outmaneuvered four felony indictments and one conviction. He is almost invulnerable to allegations of criminal and personal misbehavior.

It is chilling to recall how long ago Trump said that he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue, shoot someone, and get away with it. In effect, he has.

We are in the haze of the aftermath and the honeymoon glow of tens of millions of Trump supporters at the scale of their triumph.

Fascist. Felon. Sexual Predator. Con man at an epic level in all his business dealings. Deadbeat to his creditors. All this is in abeyance, overwhelmed by the inescapable fact that Trump was elected so decisively that the results cannot be contested.

The issue of election integrity, so central to Trump’s preparation to challenge the results, has had its moment. By any measure, this was a free and fair contest.

So, going forward, what is there to expect and to watch for?

One characteristic of Trump’s first term was how many of his high-level appointments were humiliated for their service. I especially remember when Rex Tillerson, Trump’s first secretary of state, was fired by telephone (it was widely reported) while he was suffering from intestinal distress on a trip to Africa.

Then there were the generals (“my generals,” said Trump at the outset), a roll call of military accomplishment and honors, men who were discarded by the president and then repeatedly and assailed for their character and skill.

I have lost count of how many of Trump’s associates landed in jail or prison: Steve Bannon, Peter Navarro, Paul Manafort, etc. He granted clemency or pardons to Manafort, Bannon, Roger Stone, and Michael Flynn.

Trump’s lies and discredited conspiracy assertions were repeated so often that the impact was eventually numbing. They were amazingly normalized as one side of a presidential campaign – as though in politics anything goes.

What has been so striking to me for the past forty years that I have been observing Trump — first as the editor of The Art of the Deal, and from a distance thereafter — is that he always emerges essentially unscathed from episodes that would have derailed anybody else.

His actual business record is laughably bad. The Atlantic City casinos were a bust. His products from Trump University to his personalized bible were scams or worse. His foundation was a fraud. His businesses went bankrupt six times!

What can we expect now?

For all the reasons I concluded during the campaign, it will be up to history to explain how the Trump political and personal phenomenon happened, and more than ever is still happening.

I doubt it is possible today to make meaningful predictions about what Trump will do over the next four years, although many people will try.

In the first term, from his inaugural speech declaring American “carnage” (“weird shit,” in the reported words of former President George W. Bush) to his refusal to attend Joe Biden’s inauguration or accept the that he was beaten at the polls, Trump never displayed what might have been expected from the holder of the office of George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Rather than saying “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” as FDR did, Trump advocated fear and anger as a preferred state of mind for Americans.

The tragedy of Biden’s presidency is that he was never inspiring or intimidating enough to be a formidable leader. Trump is inspiring to his followers and has shown that he can intimidate an entire political party.

Even what appeared at the time to be a successful policy initiative — the Abraham Accords in the Middle East — has been followed in due course by the most sustained violence in the region in decades, if ever.

His approval of Vladimir Putin, Benjamin Netanyahu, and autocracy in general makes his abrogation of democratic values a virtual certainty. He wants Ukraine to give up in its war with Russia. Elsewhere, there will be tariffs, to be paid for by consumers, and demands made of traditional allies that he may think cannot be met — which is actually what he wants.

Trump’s first term was chaotic. He begins his second term with exceptional momentum.

At least Trump will not need to advocate violence by supporters, as he did on January 6, 2021 — which he chose to call a spasm of “love.” Looking ahead, my question is how much those supporters will expect him to do for them in this second term.