On the Morning After...

History Will Have to Explain

  Today is November 6. Donald Trump has been relected to the presidency. The point of this piece is worth reiterating. Whatever the reactions of the moment, it will now be up to history — as the consequences evolve — to explain how it could have happened.                      

For a decade we have been swamped by and/or have wallowed in the Donald J. Trump political phenomenon.

Given all the reams of coverage, exacerbated by pervasive twenty-first century distortions, how to fathom that one half the American electorate can be in his thrall, especially as time went on and his actions, personality and character demonstrated the scale of his narcissistic malevolence.

All three branches of government have been unable or unwilling to restrain Trump’s relentless pursuit of what is by nearly every measure lawless behavior.

Now comes judgment day.

Whatever you may read or hear, the data shows that no one can really do more than guess the outcome of the presidential election or how the aftermath will unfold.

How will this country withstand another rampage by Trump through the presidency? Based on what he has said, the prospects are grim.

And when will the time of retribution or shame come for Trump apologists as it did for pre-World War II backers of “America First” or the postwar McCarthyite bullies? Virtually the entire Grand Old Party can be held accountable.

Billions have been spent on shaping the Trump race now for the third time. And yet it all seems to come down to several hundred thousand voters in a half dozen or so states.

Why?

We, or least I, need finally to acknowledge that we don’t know how or why Trump has ascended to the level he has.

I trace my bafflement and growing dismay to the years I spent as the Random House editor tasked with handling The Art of the Deal” and Surviving at the Top in the 1980s and early 1990s. Whatever as publishers we may have done, the real upward trajectory was Trump’s.

I have written before of my astonishment in the late1980s, years before he was the star of The Apprentice when a packed Atlantic City arena on hand for a professional wrestling event that Trump was promoting cheered his presence – the raucous acclaim that has been the soundtrack of Trump’s rise over the years. These were wrestling aficionados for Trump then and now, like those at his Madison Square Garden rally on October 27.

Whole cohorts of expertise have been deployed by journalists, sociologists, psychiatrists, and pundits to provide an explanation.

And yet, here we are.

Recently I listened to a presentation by the esteemed and very experienced pollster Stan Greenberg. This follow-up ensued, I checked with Stan to be sure he is being correctly represented.

This is our exchange:
  Peter: Is it the case that Trump's character, personality and record have not deterred what seems like half the voting population from choosing him? You seemed to be saying that was true.

  Stan: The great working-class majority in all parties finally heard somebody that was battling for the working class in a globalized world where elite deals left them with stagnant incomes and declining industries and borders broken by ever growing migration.

Other leaders just made promises. Trump called out the elite’s trade deals and renegotiated the most important. He did close the border.

  Peter: So, do you think his hold is a unique and therefore fundamentally inexplicable reality?

  Stan: Yes. And I don't think he is replaceable. When he goes off the scene, I think many of his voters won’t stay engaged for the rest of the contenders.

A complete deck of slides from Greenberg’s survey in September can be found on the Democracy Corps website . They show Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris’s relative strength on issues with voters. Greenberg gives a slight edge to Harris in the outcome.

I do not rest easily.

Whatever the tally on November 5 and in what will almost certainly be a disputed result, the consequences of this era will take time to absorb and be properly defined.  And it will also take time for civilization to recover.